NEW YORK CITY/CHICAGO: President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign and withdraw from the US presidential race has provided enough momentum for Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, according to three Arab-American analysts.
Biden, who endorsed Harris when he announced his retirement on Sunday, has been trailing former President Donald Trump in opinion polls amid the growing Arab-American #AbandonBiden movement and widespread calls for him to drop out of the 2024 race following his disastrous performance at the June 27 debate in Atlanta.
What was supposed to be a coronation for the 81-year-old Biden at the Democratic Party convention in Chicago on August 19 has now become an open contest in which nearly 4,700 party delegates in each state will vote for the candidate of their choice to challenge Trump, the Republican Party candidate.
Rana Abtar, a talk show host for Asharq News in Washington DC, expects Harris to be the Democratic nominee, although several other candidates could also be considered. However, she believes Democrats “must show unity” if they want to win the election in November.
“Today we see that Democrats are gradually starting to support Harris,” she told Arab News. “In some states, some delegates have already voted for Kamala Harris. This means that their votes will be reflected at the Democratic convention.”
“The remaining Democrats who have not supported Harris so far are expected to join in soon. At some point, we will see all or most Democrats rally behind Harris. It is very important that Democrats show a sign of unity after the dilemma their party faced following President Biden's announcement that he would not seek a second term.”
Biden's withdrawal from the race gives his delegates from the 50 states and provinces the freedom to support any candidate they want during the party's convention. Many alternative names are being floated, including centrist Senator Joe Manchin, former Representative Tulsi Gabbard, former First Lady Michelle Obama, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
Abtar noted that Harris is popular with African-American voters, traditionally a mainstay of the Democratic Party, and many would still view her today as part of the Biden administration's policies that fueled the #AbandonBiden movement, in which Arabs and Muslims voted for “undecided” or “no vote” options in the primaries in key swing states rather than for the president.
“Harris is not that popular in the polls,” Abtar said. “Many Democrats are worried that her chances against Trump are the same as President Biden's chances against Trump. Of course, in the coming days we will see Harris go out and talk to voters, because in the past in her role as vice president she has not spoken directly to the American people on many occasions.”
“Biden put her in charge of immigration, which in itself put her in a very uncomfortable position, especially given that the Republicans' main attacks on Democrats are on immigration and border security.
“But I think the most important element here is not Harris. It's going to be who she chooses as her running mate, because voters need excitement. Democratic voters need excitement to vote.”
Abtar said third-party candidates such as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein are often viewed as “election spoilers” – people who could steal votes from Harris or even Trump.
“Kennedy's numbers are considered quite high for an independent candidate and his voters could make a difference in the campaign by taking votes away from … Trump or Harris … if she gets the official nomination,” Abtar said.
All of the people currently being proposed as Biden's successors could become candidates for vice president. This includes Pritzker, a billionaire with presidential ambitions of his own.
Amal Mudallali, former UN ambassador and CEO of Bridges International Group, believes Harris has a “perception problem.”
She told Arab News: “There is a perception that she was not a strong vice president, that she will not be a strong candidate and that she cannot defeat Trump.”
Although Democrats appear to be quickly rallying behind Harris, including the support of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Monday, Mudallali remains cautious.
“It's all still uncertain because there are still very influential Democrats who are calling for a public convention and want to give everyone the opportunity to throw their hat in the ring and see if they can put forward the strongest candidate for the Democratic Party who can defeat Trump,” she said.
The influence of independent candidates in the election cannot be underestimated, she added.
“In very close elections, independent candidates can do a lot of damage. Because this election is a very close race – it's about a few thousand or a thousand votes – that can make or break an election campaign,” Mudallali said.
“Let's say Kennedy could steal a lot of votes from the Democrats, then that could hurt the Democrats even more and become a big problem for them.
“But so far we don't know who the Democratic Party's nominee will be. If the individual is a very strong candidate, the party may be able to unite the anti-Trump electorate, which will overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic Party candidate. In that case, the independents will make no difference.”
Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes Harris is “almost certain” to replace Biden as the nominee and suggested that Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer could be her running mate on the first “all-female” ballot.
He told Arab News: “Speculation is heavily focused on who her vice presidential running mate will be, and it could be all-women should she choose Whitmer. That is unprecedented and carries risks. But Whitmer could help win the key swing state of Michigan, and an all-women team could re-engage the currently largely demoralized Democratic base.”
He added: “Harris's approval ratings with the American public have never been high. But at this point, the decision of the Democratic Party and President Biden to put her name forward is based largely on funding and finance. She is the only one who can qualify for all the money, the hundreds of millions of dollars that have been raised so far. So her choice of a running mate will also be critical to winning over that Democratic base and increasing overall sympathy for the Democratic slate.”
Maksad believes that Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race and speculation about a replacement for Whitmer on the ballot could impact Michigan's strong Arab and Muslim electorate, many of whom voted against the Biden-Harris team in the Democratic primary on February 27.
“Arab Americans are not a monolithic system,” he said. “They are a diverse group with different priorities, spread across four swing states. Michigan gets a lot of attention, but so do Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania.”
“In Michigan, where 100,000 of them live, they have strong feelings about the war in Gaza and about President Biden, who is not doing enough to end the war. Biden's resignation opens up an opportunity for the Democratic Party to regain a foothold among Arab Americans in Michigan. And if the vice president (the one elected) is indeed the governor of Michigan, that will give Democrats even more opportunities to gain a foothold and win back Michigan as a key swing state.”
